Sunday, July 20, 2025

The Price of Losing is Infinite

     Over the past few weeks, Meta has poached top research talent from competing companies (largely OpenAI and Apple), in order to build a team focused on "Superintelligence." Zuckerberg is certainly a CEO to be reckoned with. The company's stock price was at a low of $90 in late 2022, crashing from a historic high from $380 the prior year. Mark laid off 25% of his workforce, and orchestrated one of the most dramatic corporate turnarounds in history. He backed the wrong horse with the Metaverse (being early is still being wrong is a core tenant of investing), but now everyone knows that the game to be played is AI. The stock price is now $700, a almost 8x increase from only a few years ago (in the mega cap universe, that is quite insane). He is now the third richest person in the world, narrowing edging out Jeff Bezos. Mark is not a dumb guy. He understands two very simple truths: the entire world is racing to create machine superintelligence, and there is no prize for fifth place. In an ASI driven future, the price of losing is infinite. Why shell out hundreds of millions of dollars for top research talent, unless you believe this? Is it truly so irrational to offer a top researcher a ten million dollar signing bonus, if they even slightly increase your probability of an infinite gain?

    I don't believe Mark is crazy for trying to gut OpenAI from the inside. If anything, he is not taking his position seriously enough.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Brain Farming

Brain farming: the commercialization of human brain matter as computational substrate.   Medical research and brain farming are distinct. Th...